Alguien dijo que somos un país rico lleno de pobres, pero también que hay países pobres llenos de ricos.

Alguien dijo que somos un país rico lleno de pobres, pero también que hay países pobres llenos de ricos.

ENTRADILLA: ¿Y una vez alguien dijo que la seguridad jurídica era una estupidez?

LA INVERSION SEGÚN OLAFO

Hace algunos años tres economistas: “Batra, Haufmann y Stone, realizaron un estudio en varios continentes para determinar lo que las empresas y sus dirigentes piensan sobre el marco institucional y las principales trabas para invertir en distintos países, -ya que cada inversión que no se realiza es una oportunidad de crecimiento perdida. El estudio abarcó varios continentes y a empresas pequeñas, medianas y grandes. Las preguntas fueron muy específicas: “Juzgue, en una escala de 1 a 4 , cuan problemáticos son los siguientes factores para la operación y crecimiento de su empresa”: Impuestos y regulaciones, financiamiento, inestabilidad, incertidumbre política e inflación. En el caso de América Latina, las principales restricciones mencionadas fueron: Impuestos y regulaciones e inestabilidad política, seguido de crimen callejero y financiamiento.

La investigación comprobó según los autores, que “la productividad de la inversión privada es un 22% mayor en los países con mayor libertad económica que en los países medios, y un 80% mayor que en los países con baja libertad.” /Martin Krause, /“Inseguridad jurídica: El conflicto entre los principios económicos y las doctrinas jurídicas/Eseade/Junio 2016

El largo preámbulo es para recalcar las nefastas consecuencias que tiene para el desarrollo económico de Guatemala la confirmación de la Corte de Constitucionalidad de suspender provisionalmente –desde 17 de febrero pasado- las operaciones de la hidroeléctricas Oxec I y Oxec II, argumentando incumplimientos sobre las consultas comunitarias.

Para inversiones de una magnitud tan grande, una suspensión “provisional” de más tres 3 meses es un absurdo mayúsculo y un corte directo a la yugular financiera de la empresa por donde se está desangrando decenas de miles de dólares diarios . Que la Corte más alta del país, la que debería ser antro de doctos y lugar de ilustrados para la defensa del orden constitucional no tome en cuenta las consecuencias de semejante atraso y las implicaciones de largo plazo para el desarrollo y el bienestar de su país, es un misterio esotérico. El campo pagado publicado recientemente no distorsiona un ápice las externalidades que este caso tiene para el pais: “El progreso de las comunidades, el acceso, abastecimiento, suministro y precio de la energía; la diversificación de la matriz energética; la integración eléctrica del país; el uso de energía limpia y renovable; la certeza jurídica; la generación de empleo y la atracción de inversión. Si sumamos el valor estratégico que las hidroeléctricas tienen estratégico para Guatemala, paralizar su crecimiento tiene un costo de país de larguísimo horizonte. Por cada 100MW de proyectos hidroeléctricos que se suspendan, se genera una pérdida acumulada en la economía de cerca de Q7,800 millones, el aumento del 400% de la tarifa eléctrica y la pérdida de 65,000 empleos. Estos son datos reales, no demagogia politiquera.

Una conclusión perfecta para esta columna es con la que cierra Krause su investigación: “¿Que demandar del gobierno? Tener en cuenta aquella pregunta que plateara y contestara Juan Bautista Alberdi: “ ¿Que exige la riqueza de parte de la ley para producirse y crearse? Lo que Diógenes exigía de Alejandro: que no le haga sombra”.

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